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An Overvalued Indian Stock Market?

2025-09-20

1 min readPublic

A market note on tariff shocks, FII-DII behavior, liquidity risk, and scenario planning for Nifty and Gold allocation.

An Overvalued Indian Stock Market?

Trump's recent move — tariffs & penalties on export trades — sparked global ripples.

FIIs reacted with huge selling,
DIIs jumped in with heavy buying, stabilising the market (for now).
Some confidence flows from commodity & trade relations with Russia — trusted, but fragile.

Ground Reality

But let’s be real:

  • In panic, someone takes the loss.
  • And it’s not the institutions.
  • It could be you & me.

What I’m Watching

Liquidity is king right now.

If there's a dip, Nifty50 at 20k–22k isn't off the table.
Festive season might hold it steady — but from Nov '25 to Mar '26, 👀 watch closely.

Also, US–India diplomats meeting could shift the game. Big time.

returns

PS: My Allocation Model Snapshot

Image shows a custom graph comparing Gold, Nifty50, and my own investment algorithm — an allocation model distributing funds across Nifty50, Gold, and Free Cash.

  • ✅ Delivered 10x returns over 20 years
  • ✅ Successfully avoided the 2020 crash
  • 🧠 Navigated uncertain market cycles in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2023, 2025

Tested. Tracked. Trusted.

  • Green: Performed well
  • Red: Didn't work well (still no loss)

Sources

linkedin post