An Overvalued Indian Stock Market?
2025-09-20
1 min readPublicA market note on tariff shocks, FII-DII behavior, liquidity risk, and scenario planning for Nifty and Gold allocation.
An Overvalued Indian Stock Market?
Trump's recent move — tariffs & penalties on export trades — sparked global ripples.
FIIs reacted with huge selling,
DIIs jumped in with heavy buying, stabilising the market (for now).
Some confidence flows from commodity & trade relations with Russia — trusted, but fragile.
Ground Reality
But let’s be real:
- In panic, someone takes the loss.
- And it’s not the institutions.
- It could be you & me.
What I’m Watching
Liquidity is king right now.
If there's a dip, Nifty50 at 20k–22k isn't off the table.
Festive season might hold it steady — but from Nov '25 to Mar '26, 👀 watch closely.
Also, US–India diplomats meeting could shift the game. Big time.
PS: My Allocation Model Snapshot
Image shows a custom graph comparing Gold, Nifty50, and my own investment algorithm — an allocation model distributing funds across Nifty50, Gold, and Free Cash.
- ✅ Delivered 10x returns over 20 years
- ✅ Successfully avoided the 2020 crash
- 🧠 Navigated uncertain market cycles in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2023, 2025
Tested. Tracked. Trusted.
- Green: Performed well
- Red: Didn't work well (still no loss)
Sources
linkedin post